Saturday, January 26, 2008

Managing complexity through checklists

The Checklist:

"A decade ago, Israeli scientists published a study in which engineers observed patient care in I.C.U.s for twenty-four-hour stretches. They found that the average patient required a hundred and seventy-eight individual actions per day, ranging from administering a drug to suctioning the lungs, and every one of them posed risks."

"In 2001, though, a critical-care specialist at Johns Hopkins Hospital named Peter Pronovost decided to give it a try. He didn’t attempt to make the checklist cover everything; he designed it to tackle just one problem, the one that nearly killed Anthony DeFilippo: line infections. On a sheet of plain paper, he plotted out the steps to take in order to avoid infections when putting a line in. Doctors are supposed to (1) wash their hands with soap, (2) clean the patient’s skin with chlorhexidine antiseptic, (3) put sterile drapes over the entire patient, (4) wear a sterile mask, hat, gown, and gloves, and (5) put a sterile dressing over the catheter site once the line is in. Check, check, check, check, check. These steps are no-brainers; they have been known and taught for years. So it seemed silly to make a checklist just for them. Still, Pronovost asked the nurses in his I.C.U. to observe the doctors for a month as they put lines into patients, and record how often they completed each step. In more than a third of patients, they skipped at least one."

"Pronovost and his colleagues monitored what happened for a year afterward. The results were so dramatic that they weren’t sure whether to believe them: the ten-day line-infection rate went from eleven per cent to zero. So they followed patients for fifteen more months. Only two line infections occurred during the entire period. They calculated that, in this one hospital, the checklist had prevented forty-three infections and eight deaths, and saved two million dollars in costs."

"If a new drug were as effective at saving lives as Peter Pronovost’s checklist, there would be a nationwide marketing campaign urging doctors to use it."

mp3: Bryan Adams - Here I am

Friday, January 18, 2008

Yeter gayrı

Bir deli bir kuyuya bir taş atar, bütün memleketin bağlantısı kesilir:


Bu kırmızı yazıyı görmekten ve toptancı sansür anlayışından sıkıldım artık!

Bkz. Youtube, Atatürk, sansür, özgürlük ve koyun gibi bir millet

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Kartalkaya'da kayak

Geçen yılki gibi pazar günü Kartalkaya'ya günübirlik kayak yapmaya gittik. Organizasyonu Ankara Dağcılık ve Kış Sporları İhtisas Kulübü Derneği (ADKK) yaptı.

ADKK tlf: 229 14 47
ADKK banka hesap no: İş bankası 4209 696 006

Kartalkaya'da (2255m) hava durumu. Sis ve ağır kar yağışı olması durumunda kayak yapmak güç olacağından gidilmesi tavsiye edilmez. Bir de okulların yarıyıl tatilinde gidilmesi önerilmiyor, ortam ana-baba günü oluyormuş.

Maliyet (kişi başı):

* Ulaşım + Lift (Ski Pass) = 95 YTL
* Kayak kiralama: 25-30 YTL
* Sucuk, köfte, çay vs. = 25 YTL

Toplamda kişi başı 150 YTL'yi gözden çıkarmak lazım.

Turla gitmenin faydaları: Dağa çıkarken zincir takmak lazım. Akşam dönerken de yorgun araç kullanmak zor ve riskli.

Malzemeler:

* Çikolata: Kayak molası verince çayla birlikte güzel oluyor o soğukta.
* Kitap: Otobüste ve uzun kayak molası vermek durumunda kalınca işe yarıyor. Misal Puslu Kıtalar Atlası hoş bir seçim.
* Eldiven
* Bere / Kar maskesi
* Yüz havlusu
* Yüz kremi
* Yedek iç çamaşırı ve çorap
* Yünlü çorap
* Kayak gözlüğü veya güneş gözlüğü
* Su geçirmez tulum veya eşofman
* Tulum altına giyilecek iç don
* Uzun kollu yünlü fanila
* Polar
* Rüzgar geçirmeyen ve kapşonu olan mont veya yağmurluk
* Opsiyonel: Sırt çantası (cüzdan, telefon taşımak, hava sıcak olunca montu koymak için)


Kayak kıyafetinde önemli olan hafiflik ve hareket serbestisinin engellenmemesi. Kaydığınız sürece fazla üşümeyeceğinizden öyle kat kat giyinmeye gerek yok. Ben fanila üzerine polar, onun üzerine de hafif montumu giyiyorum, yetiyor. Mola verdiğinizde mutlaka kapalı bir alanda durun yoksa teriniz soğur ve şifayı kaparsınız.

Genel Plan:

Sabah otobüsün ilk kalkış noktası: 06:00, Tunus caddesi

Kartalkaya kayak ortamına varış: 10:00

Sabah giderken otobüste çay sandviç servisi yapılıyor

Yolculuk süresi: 4 saat (Yolda 10 dakika mola ile birlikte dağın dibine kadar 2.5 saat, otobüse zincir takma 20 dakika, dağa çıkma 1 saat)

Akşam Kartalkaya'dan çıkış: 17:00

Ankara Tunus caddesine varış: 21:30

Akşam dönüşte otobüste herhangi bir servis yok, yolda 15 dakika mola veriliyor.

Temel kayak teorisi: Kayak üstünde dengeli duruş, V yaparak düz yürüme, yan yürüme, yerden kalkma, sapan yapma, kayarken sağa-sola dönme.

İlk gün baby lift’te çalışılmalı, normal pistler sıkıntılı olur.

Kayaktan sonra biraz esneme hareketi yapmak ertesi gün çekilecek acıyı azaltır.

Başka bir organizasyon seçeneği: Tempotur günübirlik kayak
* tlf: (0 312) 428 20 96
* email: tempo@temptour.com.tr (web sayfalarında bulmak mümkün değil!)
* Banka hesap no: (İş bankası) 4209 687041 (tempo tur adına)

Kayak eve tıkıldığımız kış günleri için güzel bir aktivite. En fazla üç-dört kez gidebilirsiniz zaten çünkü ya başka işiniz vardır, ya kayak pistinde hava iyi değildir (sis-fırtına), ya hastasınızdır, ya da kayak mevsimi bitmiştir (kayak mevsimi Mart ayında biter). Önerim kışın her fırsat bulunduğunda gitmektir.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

İngilizce notları

Kent English’te toplam 15 seviye var:

* Elementary (1, 2, 3)
* Pre-Intermediate (1, 2, 3)
* Intermediate (1, 2, 3)
* Upper-Intermediate (1, 2, 3)
* Advanced (1, 2, 3)

Hızlandırılmış kurda haftada üç gün, günde dört saat ders işleniyor ve her ay bir seviye geçiliyor.
Öncelikle gramer öğreniliyor, daha sonra kelime ve deyim (look after, look at, look forward vb.) dağarcığı genişletiliyor. Yazıları okurken birşeyin deyim olduğunu anlamak zor. Deyim olduğunu fark edince ona göre sözlükte arama yapmak mümkün.

Zaman zaman "herşeyi unuttum, öğrenemiiciiim!" paniği yaşanabiliyor. Tavsiyeler: Alıştırma kitabı edinin, kitap okuyun, öğretmeni yönlendirin, alıştırma yapmasını sağlayın, geyiğe sarmasını engelleyin.

Sınıfın durumu çok önemli. Eğer sınıfın en iyilerindenseniz kur atlamanız faydalı olur. Öğretmen sınıfın ortalamasına göre ders işleyeceğinden istediğiniz hızda ilerleyemezsiniz. Sonuçta 15 kurlu bir sistemde bir kur atlamak muazzam sıkıntılar doğurmaz, bir miktar ek çalışma ile adapte olunabilir.

Gelişmeleri not edin (blog). Böylece hem ne kadar ilerlediğinizi, nerelerde zorlandığınızı görür, hem de ingilizce öğreneceklerin başvurabileceği pratik bir kaynak hazırlamış olursunuz.

Elementary 3 sonrasında simple English wikipedia’da Einstein yazısını okuyup anlayabiliyor. İngilizce-ingilizce sözlüğe geçiliyor.

İngilizce kursunu bırakmadan önce mutlaka KPDS gibi geçerliliği olan bir sınavla durumunuzu belirleyin. KPDS sonucunu ömrünüz boyunca CV’nize yazabilirsiniz.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

What could go wrong?

Why crunch mode doesn't work:

"Managers decide to crunch because they want to be able to tell their bosses 'I did everything I could' "

"I think the reason there is this optimism, and ignoring what "could" go wrong - because if we did add it all up, the risk and cost would pretty much freak everybody out and nothing could get done. Its more a case of people ignoring the risks and hoping it works out.

Its not just software either. Ask anyone who has built a house, renovated, built a bridge, a building etc."

What could possibly go wrong:

"I (now) use a rule of thumb when I approach a new project or design problem: I try to think of ten things that could go wrong before I start. If I can’t think of ten things that could go wrong, I haven’t thought enough.

First, I look for “lack of” areas where the team doesn’t have experience, knowledge, or information. Then I look for areas where we’re dependent on someone else to provide something—areas where the project team doesn’t have control of a needed component. I look for areas where not all the key players are in agreement. And I look for areas where there’s not enough time to finish a component—or finish with desired quality. These questions help me identify natural areas of risk."

The logic of the 40 hour week

An extremely interesting piece of business thinking from 1926, Henry Ford, Why I favor five days' work with six days' pay:

"...it is the influence of leisure on consumption which makes the short day and, the short week so necessary. The people who consume the bulk of goods are the people who make them. That is a fact we must never forget -- that is the secret of our prosperity."

"Where people work longest and with least leisure, they buy the fewest goods. No towns were so poor as those of England where the people, from children up, worked fifteen and sixteen hours a day. They were poor because these overworked people soon wore out -- they became less and less valuable as workers. Therefore, they earned less and less and could buy less and less."

"Business is the exchange of goods. Goods are bought only as they meet needs. Needs are filled only as they are felt. They make themselves felt largely in leisure hours. The man who worked fifteen and sixteen hours a day desired only a comer to be in and a hunk of food. He had no time to cultivate new needs. No industry could ever be built up by filling his needs, because he had none but the most primitive."

"It is the intersection of power and machinery in the hands of management which has made the shorter day and the shorter week possible."

Kaukasische Novellen

Grigol Robakidse, Kaukasische Novellen, Der Imam Schamyl:

"Schamyl stand wie ein Fels. Rausch hüllte ihn ganz ein. Seine Augen spürten Flammen. Plötzlich trafen sie gerade in die Augen eines Pferdes. Mensch und Tier lockten einander in diesem Blick. Schamyl ertrug die Ruhe nicht mehr. Er sprang die Stufen der Moschee hinunter zu dem Pferde, schwang sich wild hinauf und raste davon.
...
Der Imam beschwor das Schicksal. Reiter und Pferd wurden eins wie ein Zentaur. Ein Satz; grauenvoll, wie nicht von dieser Welt. Die Naiben erstarrten am Hang mit ihren Pferden. Drüben am Rand der Schlucht hielt der Zentaur aufrecht und unversehrt. Aus seinem Antlitz traten den Naiben die furchtbaren Züge des Tiergottes hervor.

Hell aufschreiend jagten sie ihm nach: "La illah il Allah!""

Turkish Surprise

An extremely bitter article relevant to a few years ago: Turkish surprise:

"As the world turned its gaze toward Turkey, expecting what was thought to be inevitable, the Turkish people shook the floor of the global stage and gave a resounding message of hope to the wretched. We have seen there are still things in life worth a sacrifice. Turkey, a nation whose economy is in dire straits and which faces social upheaval, preserved its dignity.
...
How sad to see Turkey suffering for people who refuse to help themselves and to know that Turkey will pay a higher price — while the Arabs refuse to pay a much lower one — to save their Iraqi brothers.
...
Will you simply switch the channel to the sewage of Arab music clips and dance your way out of history? As for me, I will not shed a tear for your demise, for you would have deserved it."

Another relevant article: Diyet

Monday, January 07, 2008

How the world operates & Books to read

Aaron Swartz, The Book That Changed My Life:

"One terrifying side effect of learning the world isn't the way you think is that it leaves you all alone. And when you try to describe your new worldview to people, it either comes out sounding unsurprising ("yeah, sure, everyone knows the media's got problems") or like pure lunacy and people slowly back away."

Checkout Aaron's 2006 and 2007 book recommendations.

The Ascent of Man

"They [students] are here not to worship what is known, but to question it." --Jacob Bronowski, The Ascent of Man

Jottit

Today I gave a try to Jottit. It is a simple way to publish online. What makes it special is that your edit history is stored so that you can revert changes. Another plus is that other people can edit your pages, if you allow them of course. It seems to be the way to go if you want to have your personal wiki.

Here is my test page which anyone can edit: My Test Wiki

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Measurement (Metric) and Safety in Software

When trying to determine what to measure, the following criteria will help [MIT 16.355J / ESD.355J Software Engineering Concepts, Metrics and Reliability Assessment, p.2]:

For predicting, we need a model of relationship of predicted variable with other measurable variables. Three assumptions (Kitchenham):

1. We can accurately measure some property of software or process.
2. A relationship exists between what we can measure and what we want to know.
3. This relationship is understood, has been validated, and can be expressed in terms of a formula or model.

[Ibid. p.3]:

Size is best predictor of inherent faults remaining at start of program test. One study has shown that besides size, 3 significant additional factors:

1.Specification change activity, measured in pages of specification changes per k lines of code.
2.Average programmer skill, measured in years.
3.Thoroughness of design documentation, measured in pages of developed (new plus modified) design documents per k lines of code.

[MIT 16.355J / ESD.355J Software Engineering Concepts, Programming Languages, p.9]:

Languages affect the way we think about problems: "The tools we use have a profound (and devious) influence on our thinking habits, and, therefore on our thinking abilities?" --Dijkstra, 1982

[MIT 16.355J / ESD.355J Software Engineering Concepts, Software System Safety, p.5]:

Software−Related Accidents

* Are usually caused by flawed requirements
** Incomplete or wrong assumptions about operation of controlled system or required operation of computer.
** Unhandled controlled−system states and environmental conditions.

* Merely trying to get the software "correct" or to make it reliable will not make it safer under these conditions.

[Ibid., p.7]:

The primary safety problem in computer−based systems is the lack of appropriate constraints on design. The job of the system safety engineer is to identify the design constraints necessary to maintain safety and to ensure the system and software design enforces them.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Dinamik ve Kontrol için Faydalı Dersler

Dinamik ve kontrol ile ilgilenmek isteyenlerin konsantre olması gereken dersler aşağıda. Ayrıca MIT derslerine de link verdim. ME442 gibi bazı derslerin web sayfasında ödevler, sınavlar, cevapları, hatta geçmiş yılların soruları bile var.

ME208: Dynamics
MIT 16.07 Dynamics

ME210: Applied Mathematics for Mechanical Engineers
MIT 18.085 Mathematical Methods for Engineers I
MIT 18.086 Mathematical Methods for Engineers II

MATH219: Introduction to Differential Equations
MIT 18.03 Differential Equations

ME304: Control Systems
MIT 16.31 Feedback Control Systems
MIT 16.333 Aircraft Stability and Control

ME310: Numerical Methods

ME418: Dynamics of Machinery

ME442: Design of Control Systems

ME414: System Dynamics

ME511: Modern Control

ME502: Advanced Dynamics

ME506: Dynamics of Nonlinear Systems
MIT 6.243J / 2.156J / 16.337J Dynamics of Nonlinear Systems

ME507: Applied Optimal Control
MIT 16.323 Principles of Optimal Control

EE553: Optimization

MIT 6.435 System Identification

MIT 6.336J / 2.096J / 16.910J Introduction to Numerical Simulation

MIT STS.471J / 16.895J / ESD.30J Engineering Apollo: The Moon Project as a Complex System

Friday, January 04, 2008

Hard disc error

I was suspecting that my harddisc had a problem for some time now. Thanks to Koray, I looked at the event viewer and saw a chilling message:


I better comply!

The event viewer can be found control panel/administrative tools.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

We are alone

We are alone:

"What is the implication of the possibility, mounting a bit every day, that we are alone in the universe?...It means that we have a job to do, a mission that will last all our ages to come: to seed and then to shepherd intelligent life beyond this pale blue dot."

Karl Sabbagh:

"I used to believe that there were experts and non-experts and that, on the whole, the judgment of experts is more accurate, more valid, and more correct than my own judgment. But over the years, thinking — and I should add, experience — has changed my mind. What experts have that I don't are knowledge and experience in some specialized area. What, as a class, they don't have any more than I do is the skills of judgment, rational thinking and wisdom."